Market Regime
Markets alternate between calm uptrends (“risk-on”) and stressed downtrends (“risk-off”). This labels the PSE's history using three transparent signals from a reconstructed composite index: trend vs. its 200-day average, drawdown from the peak, and 30-day volatility. A descriptive read of where the market has been, not a forecast.
Regime detection needs a long history of daily closes, which isn't available in this environment yet. The page stays empty rather than label placeholder data.
Delayed / end-of-day data, recomputed by PSEye. A descriptive classification of past market conditions, not a forecast.
Good to know
What a market regime is, how this one is classified, and what it is not for.
Risk-on describes a stretch where investors are willing to hold volatile assets and prices trend upward with shallow pullbacks. Risk-off is the opposite: money moves toward safety, drawdowns deepen, and daily swings get larger. The labels describe market conditions, not a prediction about the next session.
By a fixed, published rule rather than a judgment call. The classifier reads the trend, the depth of the current drawdown and the recent volatility of a reconstructed composite index, and every historical day is labelled by the same rule as today, so nothing here is fitted after the fact.
The current classification sits at the top of this page along with the signals behind it. A bear market conventionally means a fall of 20% or more from the peak, which is a drawdown threshold this classifier reads directly, alongside trend and volatility.
Nobody can tell you that, and a site that claims to is guessing. What the record here does show is how deep the current fall is against the market's high since 2020, how deep past falls went, and that the market recovered from those. That is history, not a forecast, and past recoveries do not guarantee the next one. See the year-by-year record
No, and it is not built for that. The regime is computed from price history that has already happened, so it identifies a condition after it is underway and changes label after a turn, not before one. It is context for interpreting other things you are looking at.
An equal-weighted composite built from every tracked PSE company's daily closes, not the PSEi. Equal weighting keeps the regime a statement about the market broadly rather than about the 30 largest companies. Market breadth statistics →